AFRICA UPSC

CONFLICTS & CIVIL WARS

CONFLICTS & CIVIL WARS

 

COUP IN NIGER:

NEWS:  Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of the presidential guards unit, declared himself Niger's new ruler, REPLACING Mohamed Bazoum. .

WHY IMPORTANT -

Because the west africa has been run by dictators(former army men).

What is ECOWAS DOING?

ECOWAS HAS SENT CHADS LEADER Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno , in Niger's capital, Niamey.

TO spearhead mediation efforts after West African leaders gave Niger's military seven days to give up power.

 

Africa’s Conflict & countries involved

Conflicts in Africa are direct consequence of European interference to control its rich mineral resources & chaotic end to colonialism. Inter clan rivalry among tribal groups has also added to violence. Conflict levels were high in the early 1990s following the end of the Cold War. Reported incidents and fatalities in Africa were at a low in the mid-2000s, but have risen since 2012, largely due to escalations in Egypt, CAR, DRC, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Somalia.

Current conflicts:

  1. Nigeria

Fatalities blamed on Boko Haram activities have increased at an average of 282% since 2010 – from 65 in 2010 to 3 878 in 2014. The number of civilian deaths as a result of this conflict by all actors has also increased over time.

 

  1. South Sudan

Unity, Central Equatoria, Jonglei, Upper Nile and Lakes states have witnessed 90% of all fatalities since the outbreak of conflict in December 2013. December 2013 remains the bloodiest month since the conflict started.

 

  1. Somalia

AMISOM’s operational presence in South-central Somalia continues to broaden against al-Shabaab’s territorial control. The role of the Somali government in the fight against al-Shabaab is most noticeable after the end of the transition in 2012.

 

  1. Central African Republic

The top three provinces that have witnessed the most deaths are Bangui, Ouham and Ouham Pende. All actors have contributed significantly to the rise in the number of civilian deaths during the conflict. While CAR accounts for only 0,5% of the African population, 11% of conflict-related fatalities occurred there in 2014.

 

  1. Sudan

What’s behind the civil war?

The clashes erupted in the middle of April 2023 amid an apparent power struggle between the two main factions of the military regime.

  • The Sudanese armed forces are broadly loyal to Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s de facto ruler,
  • while the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a collection of militia, follow the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
  • The power struggle has its roots in the years before a 2019 uprising that ousted the dictatorial ruler Omar al-Bashir, who built up formidable security forces that he deliberately set against one another.

When an effort to transition to a democratic civilian-led government faltered after Bashir’s fall, an eventual showdown appeared inevitable, with diplomats in Khartoum warning in early 2022 that they feared such an outbreak of violence. In the weeks before clashes broke out tensions had risen further.

 

How did the military rivalries develop?

The RSF was founded by Bashir to crush a rebellion in Darfur region of sudanthat began more than 20 years ago due to the political and economic marginalisation of the local people by Sudan’s central

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AFRICA ADMIN & INSTITUTIONS

 

Previous conflicts:

African Union has announced that Burkina FasoMaliGuinea and Sudan  AU & ECOWAS

Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan – started the year with transitional administrations dominated by military officers, a record since the early 2000s.

African Union has announced that Burkina FasoMaliGuinea and Sudan will remain suspended from the pan-African organization following the summit in Ethiopia.

MaliGuinea and Sudan were suspended in 2021, Burkina Faso followed a year later, after the military took power.

the head of the AU's Peace and Security Council, Bankole Adeoye, "reaffirmed zero tolerance against unconstitutional changes of government", adding that it is ready to help the four countries "return to constitutional order".

On Saturday, member countries of ECOWAS also decided to maintain the suspension of MaliBurkina Faso and Guinea and impose travel bans on government officials and representatives.

The three countries had asked on 10 February for the lifting of their suspension from ECOWAS, but also from the AU, deploring the "sanctions imposed".

ECOWAS - Headquarters  - Abuja, Nigeria

-The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS; also known as CEDEAO in French and Portuguese) is a regional political and economic union of fifteen countries located in West Africa.

The union was established on 28 May 1975, with the signing of the Treaty of Lagos, with its stated mission to promote economic integration across the region. A revised version of the treaty was agreed and signed on 24 July 1993 in Cotonou.

The ECOWAS also serves as a peacekeeping force in the region, with member states occasionally sending joint military forces to intervene in the bloc's member countries at times of political instability and unrest.

ECOWAS Member States:

 

 

Chad is currently one of the leading partners in a West African coalition in the fight against Boko Haram and other Islamist militants.Chad's army announced the death of Déby on 20 April 2021, following an incursion in the northern region by the FACT group, during which the president was killed amid fighting on the front lines. Déby's son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby, has been named interim president by a Transitional Council of military officers. That transitional council has replaced the Constitution with a new charter, granting Mahamat Déby the powers of the presidency and naming him head of the armed forces.

FACT - The Front for Change and Concord in Chad ( FACT), is a political and military organisation created by SG Mahamat Mahdi Ali in March 2016 in Tanua, in the north of Chad, with the goal of overthrowing the government of Chad.

The East African Community (EAC)

African Union (AU)  - The African Union (AU)

 

 

 

 

  1. Kenya elections

The upcoming general elections scheduled for 9 August will be closely contested, as incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta is serving his second and constitutionally final term. A previous deal with Deputy President William Ruto under the ruling Jubilee Party of Kenya (JPK) was based on the understanding that each would mobilise their respective ethnic groups – Kalenjin and Kikuyu – to support the other’s presidential bid. However, Kenyatta has allied himself with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at Ruto’s expense. Despite the powerful Odinga-Kenyatta alliance, Ruto’s populist campaign is gaining momentum among voters frustrated with the poor state of the economy. Political campaigning will intensify in the coming months and disputes between supporters of rival politicians will fuel security incidents. Nonetheless, the cross-ethnic nature of the emerging coalitions will likely mitigate the threat of widespread unrest, having to some extent defused traditional rivalries between various groups such as Kenyatta’s Kikuyu and Odinga’s Luo.

 

 Unprecedented times in Angola

Angola will also head to the polls in August or September in what is set to be the most tightly contested general elections in the country’s post-independence history.

For the first time, the main opposition party, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), has opened ranks to increase its chances of a wider victory. This marks a substantial shift in the country’s postcolonial political trajectory, where liberation movements-cum-political parties have typically tended to close ranks to protect their interests.

The change comes as UNITA seeks to capitalise on heightened levels of popular discontent with the government led by the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), underpinned by six consecutive years of economic decline, high youth unemployment, and rising costs of goods and services.

We expect the MPLA and incumbent President João Lourenço to emerge victorious, enabled by the party’s vast organisational and financial capacity. For business, this is a plus, as it will entail broad policy continuity. However, civil unrest is likely to continue to rise in the run-up to the elections – and as the dust settles afterwards – resulting in higher-than-normal security risks across the country, particularly urban centres.

Nigeria gears up for elections

In Nigeria, politics will also take centre stage of national discourse as President Muhammadu Buhari enters his final year in office and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) positions itself to retain political power after his handover on 29 May 2023. The APC national convention scheduled for February will kick-start an expectedly tumultuous electoral season – as political manoeuvrings commence within the APC and lead opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Early contenders such as APC party leader, Bola Tinubu, and former Senate (upper house) president Anyim Pius Anyim of the PDP will work to strengthen their respective political bases, secure support across various ethno-religious groups, mobilise mass voting blocs and build regional alliances ahead of the February 2023 presidential elections.

Buhari will make some last-ditch attempts to address economic and security challenges – including a 15.63% inflation rate, sustained threats across the country from Islamist and Niger Delta militants, banditry, separatist movements and urban crime. Government decision-making will however, slow down as the focus shifts towards elections, heightening non-payment risks and driving policy and regulatory uncertainty.

MILITANCY

Islamist militant groups across Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to further expand their territorial reach in 2022.

In the Sahel, the al-Qaida affiliate Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) will continue to make inroads into western Mali, northern Côte d’Ivoire and northern Benin, where it has already established networks. Attacks on security forces and local officials in rural areas of these countries will become more frequent. As militants establish themselves in northern Benin, the early emergence of a new front in the Benin-Niger-Nigeria borderlands is also likely in 2022. There have long been signs that groups with ties to militants in the Lake Chad region have been trying to establish themselves in northwestern Nigeria, capitalising on worsening insecurity. Meanwhile, Ansaru, an al-Qaida affiliate, appears to be re-emerging in Kaduna state.

Similar dynamics are also at play in Central and East Africa, as Islamic State (IS) affiliates in Congo (DRC) and Mozambique are deepening their reach. In 2022, militants in the DRC are likely to continue expanding their rural insurgency towards South Kivu and Ituri provinces. They are also likely to intensify their campaign of long-range attacks in eastern Congolese cities, and to a lesser extent in western Uganda and Kampala. In Mozambique, Islamist militants will continue to expand to new areas in the face of a regional military intervention. The conflict is likely to continue spilling over into the nearby province of Niassa and border areas of southern Tanzania.

Ethiopia’s conflict

The conflict between federal armed forces and militias allied to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) will likely persist in northern parts of the country in 2022. The conflict in August 2021 expanded into border regions of neighbouring Amhara and Afar regional states, though the federal government reclaimed territories across all three regional states in December 2021. Despite significant international pressure, prospects for a negotiated settlement remain unclear given the entrenched positions of both sides. Persistent reports of human rights abuses committed by both sides and the apparent reluctance of the federal government to address the dire humanitarian situation in Tigray will continue to attract international condemnation. Meanwhile, the conflict will also continue to strain government finances and undermine investor confidence.

African Union has announced that Burkina FasoMaliGuinea and Sudan  AU & ECOWAS

Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan – started the year with transitional administrations dominated by military officers, a record since the early 2000s.

African Union has announced that Burkina FasoMaliGuinea and Sudan will remain suspended from the pan-African organization following the summit in Ethiopia.

MaliGuinea and Sudan were suspended in 2021, Burkina Faso followed a year later, after the military took power.

the head of the AU's Peace and Security Council, Bankole Adeoye, "reaffirmed zero tolerance against unconstitutional changes of government", adding that it is ready to help the four countries "return to constitutional order".

On Saturday, member countries of ECOWAS also decided to maintain the suspension of MaliBurkina Faso and Guinea and impose travel bans on government officials and representatives.

The three countries had asked on 10 February for the lifting of their suspension from ECOWAS, but also from the AU, deploring the "sanctions imposed".

ECOWAS - Headquarters  - Abuja, Nigeria

-The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS; also known as CEDEAO in French and Portuguese) is a regional political and economic union of fifteen countries located in West Africa.

The union was established on 28 May 1975, with the signing of the Treaty of Lagos, with its stated mission to promote economic integration across the region. A revised version of the treaty was agreed and signed on 24 July 1993 in Cotonou.

The ECOWAS also serves as a peacekeeping force in the region, with member states occasionally sending joint military forces to intervene in the bloc's member countries at times of political instability and unrest.

ECOWAS Member States:

 

 

Chad is currently one of the leading partners in a West African coalition in the fight against Boko Haram and other Islamist militants.Chad's army announced the death of Déby on 20 April 2021, following an incursion in the northern region by the FACT group, during which the president was killed amid fighting on the front lines. Déby's son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby, has been named interim president by a Transitional Council of military officers. That transitional council has replaced the Constitution with a new charter, granting Mahamat Déby the powers of the presidency and naming him head of the armed forces.

FACT - The Front for Change and Concord in Chad ( FACT), is a political and military organisation created by SG Mahamat Mahdi Ali in March 2016 in Tanua, in the north of Chad, with the goal of overthrowing the government of Chad.

The East African Community (EAC)

African Union (AU)  - The African Union (AU)

 

 

 

 

  1. Kenya elections

The upcoming general elections scheduled for 9 August will be closely contested, as incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta is serving his second and constitutionally final term. A previous deal with Deputy President William Ruto under the ruling Jubilee Party of Kenya (JPK) was based on the understanding that each would mobilise their respective ethnic groups – Kalenjin and Kikuyu – to support the other’s presidential bid. However, Kenyatta has allied himself with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at Ruto’s expense. Despite the powerful Odinga-Kenyatta alliance, Ruto’s populist campaign is gaining momentum among voters frustrated with the poor state of the economy. Political campaigning will intensify in the coming months and disputes between supporters of rival politicians will fuel security incidents. Nonetheless, the cross-ethnic nature of the emerging coalitions will likely mitigate the threat of widespread unrest, having to some extent defused traditional rivalries between various groups such as Kenyatta’s Kikuyu and Odinga’s Luo.

 

 Unprecedented times in Angola

Angola will also head to the polls in August or September in what is set to be the most tightly contested general elections in the country’s post-independence history.

For the first time, the main opposition party, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), has opened ranks to increase its chances of a wider victory. This marks a substantial shift in the country’s postcolonial political trajectory, where liberation movements-cum-political parties have typically tended to close ranks to protect their interests.

The change comes as UNITA seeks to capitalise on heightened levels of popular discontent with the government led by the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), underpinned by six consecutive years of economic decline, high youth unemployment, and rising costs of goods and services.

We expect the MPLA and incumbent President João Lourenço to emerge victorious, enabled by the party’s vast organisational and financial capacity. For business, this is a plus, as it will entail broad policy continuity. However, civil unrest is likely to continue to rise in the run-up to the elections – and as the dust settles afterwards – resulting in higher-than-normal security risks across the country, particularly urban centres.

Nigeria gears up for elections

In Nigeria, politics will also take centre stage of national discourse as President Muhammadu Buhari enters his final year in office and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) positions itself to retain political power after his handover on 29 May 2023. The APC national convention scheduled for February will kick-start an expectedly tumultuous electoral season – as political manoeuvrings commence within the APC and lead opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Early contenders such as APC party leader, Bola Tinubu, and former Senate (upper house) president Anyim Pius Anyim of the PDP will work to strengthen their respective political bases, secure support across various ethno-religious groups, mobilise mass voting blocs and build regional alliances ahead of the February 2023 presidential elections.

Buhari will make some last-ditch attempts to address economic and security challenges – including a 15.63% inflation rate, sustained threats across the country from Islamist and Niger Delta militants, banditry, separatist movements and urban crime. Government decision-making will however, slow down as the focus shifts towards elections, heightening non-payment risks and driving policy and regulatory uncertainty.

MILITANCY

Islamist militant groups across Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to further expand their territorial reach in 2022.

In the Sahel, the al-Qaida affiliate Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) will continue to make inroads into western Mali, northern Côte d’Ivoire and northern Benin, where it has already established networks. Attacks on security forces and local officials in rural areas of these countries will become more frequent. As militants establish themselves in northern Benin, the early emergence of a new front in the Benin-Niger-Nigeria borderlands is also likely in 2022. There have long been signs that groups with ties to militants in the Lake Chad region have been trying to establish themselves in northwestern Nigeria, capitalising on worsening insecurity. Meanwhile, Ansaru, an al-Qaida affiliate, appears to be re-emerging in Kaduna state.

Similar dynamics are also at play in Central and East Africa, as Islamic State (IS) affiliates in Congo (DRC) and Mozambique are deepening their reach. In 2022, militants in the DRC are likely to continue expanding their rural insurgency towards South Kivu and Ituri provinces. They are also likely to intensify their campaign of long-range attacks in eastern Congolese cities, and to a lesser extent in western Uganda and Kampala. In Mozambique, Islamist militants will continue to expand to new areas in the face of a regional military intervention. The conflict is likely to continue spilling over into the nearby province of Niassa and border areas of southern Tanzania.

Ethiopia’s conflict

The conflict between federal armed forces and militias allied to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) will likely persist in northern parts of the country in 2022. The conflict in August 2021 expanded into border regions of neighbouring Amhara and Afar regional states, though the federal government reclaimed territories across all three regional states in December 2021. Despite significant international pressure, prospects for a negotiated settlement remain unclear given the entrenched positions of both sides. Persistent reports of human rights abuses committed by both sides and the apparent reluctance of the federal government to address the dire humanitarian situation in Tigray will continue to attract international condemnation. Meanwhile, the conflict will also continue to strain government finances and undermine investor confidence.

 

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